66th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research:  Strength and Success Through Partnerships and Alliances

March 5th – 8th  2012

Charleston, South Carolina


Opening Session

Conference Opening and Introduction of Mayor

Mr. Samuel P. Williamson

Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

Welcome/Opening Remarks

The Honorable Joseph P. Riley, Jr.

Mayor, Charleston, South Carolina

Introductory Comments and Introduction of Speaker

Mr. Samuel P. Williamson

Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

Invited Speaker - Dr. David Parsons, Director, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma

Senior Leader Panel:  Partnerships - The Key to Tackling Critical Challenges in Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research

Moderator:  Mr. Bryan Norcross, The Weather Channel Hurricane Specialist


- Rear Admiral David Titley, Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy

- Dr. Fred Lewis, Director, Air Force Weather 

- Dr. Jack Kaye, Associate Director and Research and Analysis Lead, Earth Science Division,

  National Aeronautics and Space Administration 

- Mr. David B. Caldwell, Director, Office of Climate, Water and Weather Services, National Weather Service



Session 1a:    2011 View of Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research (WG/TCR)

Session Leaders

Dr. Frank Marks, Co-Chair WG/TCR and Director Hurricane Research Division (NOAA/AOML)

Dr. Ronald Ferek, Co-Chair WG/TCR and Program Officer Marine Meteorology Program (ONR)

Overview of WG/TCR Efforts and Promising Results

Federal agencies research efforts, needs, and operational priorities

Frank Marks (AOML/HRD) and Ronald Ferek (ONR)

Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP)

Real-Time Experimental Forecast System for 2012

Fred Toepfer and Robert Gall (NWS/OST)



Session 1b:    The 2011 Tropical Cyclone Season in Review

Session Leaders

Mr. James Franklin (NCEP/NHC) and Mr. Max Mayfield (Channel 10, WPLG-ABC)

The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season:  Only One U.S. Hurricane Landfall Despite Another Active Season

Stacy R. Stewart and Lixion A. Avila (NCEP/NHC) 

Overview of the 2011 Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season

Todd B. Kimberlain and Eric. S. Blake (NCEP/NHC)

2011 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Forecast Verification

John P. Cangialosi and James L. Franklin  (NCEP/NHC)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center:  Changes, Challenges and Opportunities

CAPT Michael Angove (JTWC)

Summary of the 2011 Western Pacific/Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Season

Bob Falvey (JTWC)

Review of the 2011 Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season and Preliminary Verification

Raymond Tanabe  (NWS/CPHC)


53d Weather Reconnaissance Squadron

2011 Hurricane Season Reconnaissance Summary

Lt Col Jonathan Talbot (USAFR/53 WRS)


NOAA Aircraft Operations Center (AOC)

2011 Seasonal Summary and Future Plans

Jim McFadden (NOAA/AOC)




Invited Speaker - Dr. Michael C. Morgan, Director, Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences,

National Science Foundation


Session 2a:  Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Updates, Part 1

Session Leader

Ms. Shirley Murillo (AOML/HRD)

2011 Update on The Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT)

Jiann-Gwo Jiing, C. Landsea, and S. Murillo (JHT)

Improvements in Statistical Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models:  A Year 1 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update

Mark DeMaria (NOAA/NESDIS)


Improvements to the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index

John Kaplan  (NOAA/AOML)

Improvements in the Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Resulting from Inclusion of Satellite Passive Microwave Observations

Christopher Rozoff (University of Wisconsin)

Enhancement of SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index Using the 37 GHz Ring Pattern

Haiyan Jiang (Florida International University)

Extending SHIPS Hurricane Intensity Forecasts with some Dynamical Variables

T. Krishnamurti (Florida State University)

A New Secondary Eyewall Formation Index: Transition to Operations & Quantification of Associated Hurricane Intensity & Structure Changes

Jim Kossin (NOAA/NCDC)


Development of a Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Genesis Prediction Scheme

Jason Dunion (AOML/HRD)

Operation of the Wide Swath Radar Altimeter (WSRA)

2011 Hurricane Season

Ivan PopStefanija (ProSensing)



Session 2b:  Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Updates, Part 2

Session Leader

Dr. Chris Landsea (NCEP/NHC)

2012 Upgrades to the Operational  GFDL/GFDN  Hurricane Model

Morris Bender (OAR/GFDL)

Validation of HWRF Forecasts with Satellite Observations

Tomislava Vukicevic (AOML/HRD)

Assimilation of Non-NOAA and Non-AF GPS Dropwindsonde Data into NOAA Numerical Models

Kathryn Sellwood (University of Miami)

Development of a Real-Time Automated Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis:  A Year 1 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update

John Knaff  (NOAA/NESDIS)


Improved SFMR Surface Wind Measurements in Intense Rain Conditions:  A JHT Project


Improved Automation and Performance of VORTRAC Intensity Guidance

Wen-Chau Lee (NCAR)



Session 3:      Advances in Storm Surge Predictions

Session Leaders

Ms. Jane Smith (USACE/ERDC) and Mr. Jamie Rhome (NCEP/NHC)

The National Weather Service’s Storm Surge Program: Past, Present, and Future

Jamie Rhome (NCEP/NHC)

Moving Forward with Surge Communication Products 

Betty Hearn Morrow (Eastern Research Group)

Documenting Hurricane Inland Storm Tides

Robert Mason (USGS/OSW)

Measuring Hurricane Storm Surge in South Carolina

Paul Conrads (USGS/South Carolina Water Science Center)

A Testbed for the Evaluation of Wave, Storm Surge and Inundation Models for Tropical Storms

Rick Luettich (University of North Carolina)

USACE Engineer Research and Development Center Coastal Storm Modeling System (CSTORM-MS)

T. Chris Massey (USACE/ERDC)

Development of a Storm Surge Ensemble Modeling Methodology Using a Suite of Hurricane Track Predictions

Machuan Peng (NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory)

Fast Forecasting of Hurricane Waves and Inundation in Hawaii

Jane McKee Smith (USACE/ERDC)



Session 4a:  Observations and Observing Strategies for Tropical Cyclones and their Environment, Part 1

Session Leaders

Mr. Chris Velden (University of Wisconsin/CIMSS) and Dr. Mark DeMaria (NOAA/NESDIS)

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation and Formation Detection using the Deviation Angle Variance Technique

Elizabeth Ritchie (University of Arizona)


On the Application of the Dvorak Technique at SAB


Michael Turk (NESDIS/Satellite Analysis Branch)

The 2011 GOES-R Proving Ground at the National Hurricane Center

Jack Beven (NCEP/NHC)


NRL Tropical Cyclone Satellite Web Page:  15 Years of Quasi-Operational and R&D Applications

Jeff Hawkins (NRL)

Understanding the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Karl From Observations and Models:  Using NASA’s Airborne and Satellite Observations to Evaluate the Operational Hurricane Forecast Model HWRF

Svetla Hristova-Veleva (California Institute of Technology)

Observations Of C-Band Brightness Temperatures and Ocean Surface Wind Speed and Rain Rate from the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD)

Peter Black (SAIC/NRL)



Session 4b:  Observations and Observing Strategies for Tropical Cyclones and their Environment, Part 2

Session Leaders

Dr. Elizabeth Ritchie (University of Arizona) and Mr. Jeff Hawkins (NRL-Monterey/SAIC)

Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3): A Multi-year Investigation of Atlantic Hurricanes

Scott Braun (NASA/GSFC)

An Advanced Dropsonde System for Hurricane Reconnaissance and Surveillance

Mark Beaubien (Yankee Environmental Systems, Inc.)

New Eyewall Dropsonde Observations During Rapid Intensification Events in Super-Typhoons Megi (2010) and Jangmi (2008)

Peter Black (SAIC/NRL)

Analysis of the Impact of Supplemental Dropwindsonde and Rawinsonde Observations on Model Track Forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011)

Michael Brennan (NCEP/NHC)


Improving The Ocean Data Acquisition System (ODAS) For Research Aircraft

Lynn Shay (University of Miami)

Preliminary Results from AXBT Demonstration Project in Support of Hurricane Coupled Modeling Products and Improvement in Guidance to NHC Hurricane Specialists

CDR Elizabeth Sanabia (United States Naval Academy)

2012 Plans for NOAA’s Intensity Forecast Experiment (IFEX)

Shirley Murillo (AOML/HRD)

Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) Experiment: Scientific Basis, New Analysis Tools and Some First Results

Michael Montgomery (Naval Postgraduate School)

Planning for Success – An Operational Test Program for Unmanned Observing Strategies

Robbie Hood (NOAA/OAR)



Session 5a:  Tropical Cyclone Model Development and Technology Transfer, Part 1

Session Leaders

Dr. Lynn “Nick” Shay (University of Miami/RSMAS) and Dr. Michael Fiorino (NOAA/ESRL,GSD)

FY2012 Implementation of Advanced High-Resolution Triple-Nested HWRF at NCEP/EMC

Vijay Tallapragada (NCEP/EMC)

FNMOC Collaborations in Tropical Cyclone Forecasting and Aids

Charles Skupniewicz (Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center)

Advancing NOAA’s HWRF Prediction System Through Enhanced Physics of the Air-Sea Coupling And Ocean Model Initialization

Isaac Ginis (University of Rhode Island)

Comparison and Evaluation of Two ABL Mixing Schemes in HWRF

Jian-Wen Bao (NOAA/ESRL)

Creation of a Statistical Ensemble for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction

Kate Musgrave (Colorado State University)

Real-time ACCESS-TC:  Vortex Specification, 4DVAR Initialization, Verification and Structure Diagnostics

Noel Davidson (Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research) 

The Potential Benefit of HIWRAP Doppler Radar Radial Velocity Data During HS3:  An Example from Hurricane Karl (2010)

Jason Sippel (Morgan State University and NASA/GSFC)



Session 5b:  Tropical Cyclone Model Development and Technology Transfer, Part 2

Session Leaders

Dr. Vijay Tallapragada (NCEP/EMC) and Dr. James Doyle (NRL)

Past, Present and Future of Coupled HYCOM-HWRF System (HyHWRF) 

Hendrik Tolman (NCEP/EMC)

NCEP Ocean Modeling in Support of TC Forecasting

Hendrik Tolman (NCEP/EMC)

An Overview of Recent COAMPS-TC Development and Real-Time Tests

James Doyle (NRL)


Diagnostic Verification of COAMPS-TC Performance for the HFIP Retrospective Forecasts

Jonathan Moskaitis (NRL)

Evaluation of Experimental Models for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting in Support of the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)

Barbara Brown (NCAR)

Performance of Operational and HFIP experimental Global Models during the HFIP 2011 Summer Demo and the Track Intensity Error Relationship

Mike Fiorino (ESRL/Global Systems Division)

Community Support and Testing of the Hurricane WRF model at the Developmental Testbed Center

Ligia Bernardet (ESRL/Global Systems Division)

Systematically Merged Atlantic Regional Temperature and Salinity (SMARTS) Climatology: Application to Hurricane Earl

Lynn Shay (University of Miami)



Session 6:    Other Research to Improve the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure, Track,

Precipitation, and Coastal and Inland Inundation

Session Leaders

Dr. Peter Black (NRL-Monterey/SAIC) and Dr. Wayne Schubert (CSU)

Thermodynamic Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Spin-up

Zhuo Wang (University of Illinois)

Diurnal Pulsing of Tropical Cyclones: An Overlooked Yet Fundamental TC Process?

Jason Dunion (AOML/HRD)

Wind Speed Retrieval from Digital Communication and GPS Signals

Rashmi Shah (Purdue University)


Invited Speaker - Mr. Brad Rippey, Meteorologist, US Department of Agriculture, Office of the Chief Economist




Conference Banquet


Banquet Address - Mr. Bill Walsh, Lead Meteorologist, Channel 5 (CBS), WCSC, Charleston, SC


Hagemeyer Award Presentation - Mr. Raymond Tanabe, Director, Central Pacific Hurricane Center/Honolulu WFO


Mr. Jeff Hawkins--2012


Dr. Peter G. Black -- 2011

Dr. Jim Goerss --2010

Dr. Mark DeMaria --2009

Mr. Robert Dumont--2008

Mr. Charles J. “Charlie” Neumann--2007

Dr. Joanne Simpson--2006

Dr. Frank D. Marks, Jr.--2005

Mr. Max Mayfield--2004

Mr. Chris Velden--2003

Prof. Russell Elsberry--2002



Effective Communications:  An Important Key to Saving Lives

Session Leader

Ms. Maria Pirone (Harris Corporation)

Invited Speaker Mr. Dave Jones, Founder,  President & CEO, StormCenter Communications, Inc.


Panel 1:  Effective Communications, Part 1:  Are They Hearing What We’re Saying?

Moderator:  Ms. Maria Pirone (Harris Corporation)


- Mr. David B. Caldwell, Director, Office of Climate, Water and Weather Services (NWS) 

- Ms. DeeDee BennettFire and Emergency Management Program (Oklahoma State University)


Panel 2:  Effective Communications, Part 2:  Will They Respond in the Intended Way?

Moderator:  Dr. Brenda D. Phillips,  Professor, Center for the Study of Disasters and Extreme Events, Fire and Emergency Management Program, Department of Political Science, Oklahoma State University


- Ms. Brenda J. Philips, Director, Industry, Government and End User Partnerships, Center for Collaborative

  Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA), University of Massachusetts

- Mr. Frank Lucia, Rehabilitation Engineering Research Center for Wireless Technologies, Georgia Institute of


- Dr. B. Lee Lindner, Professor, Department of Physics and Astronomy College of Charleston 




Final Plenary Session

Session Leader

Dr. Paul Try (OFCM/STC)

WG/HWSOR: Action Item Review

Dr. Edward Rappaport (NCEP/NHC)

Chairperson, WG/HWSOR

Effective Communications and Social Science Research Results

Dr. Brenda D. Phillips (Oklahoma State University)

Conference Wrap-Up

Dr. Paul Try (OFCM/STC)

Final Wrap-up

Mr. Samuel P. Williamson

Federal Coordinator for Meteorology


Posters For The 66th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference



Changes to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Disturbance Satellite Rainfall Estimates

Jessica Schauer and Wallace Hogsett (NCEP/NHC)


Towards Predicting Short-Term Intensity

Using TC Structure Patterns from Recon and HURSAT Data

Josh Cossuth and Robert Hart (Florida State University)


Storm-Centric View of Tropical Cyclone Cold Wakes

Joel Scott, Chelle Gentemann, and Deborah Smith (Remote Sensing Systems)


A Web-based Interactive Interface for Researching and Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Genesis and Intensity Using the Deviation Angle Variance Technique

Elizabeth A. Ritchie1, Wiley Black1, J. Scott Tyo1, M. F. Pineros1, Kimberly M.Wood1, Oscar Rodriguez-Herrera1, Matthew E. Kucas2, and James W. E. Darlow2  (1University of Arizona, 2Joint Typhoon Warning Center)


Development of a Hybrid Statistical-Dynamical Wind Speed Probability Model


Andrea Schumacher1, Mark DeMaria2, Kate Musgrave1 and John Knaff2 (1Colorado State University/CIRA, 2NOAA/NESDIS)


A Case Study of the Intensification of Hurricane Maria (2011) in a Real-Time COAMPS-TC Prediction

Jonathan R. Moskaitis, Y. Jin, and J. Doyle (NRL)


Diagnostic Verification of Experimental Model Forecasts for Hurricane Irene and Maria

Barbara G. Brown, Paul A. Kucera, Louisa Nance, and Christopher L. Williams (National Center for Atmospheric Research)


Analysis of Aircraft Observations in Tropical Cyclones Using SAMURAI

Michael M. Bell (Naval Postgraduate School)


A Comparison of Modeled and Observed Ocean Heat Content Using In-Situ Ocean Observations Collected During Operational Weather Reconnaissance Flights in Tropical Storms Don and Emily (2011)

Elliot Hoy, Ian Park, and Elizabeth Sanabia (United States Naval Academy)



An Advanced Dropsonde System for Hurricane Reconnaissance and Surveillance

1Mark Beaubien, 2Lee Harrison and 3Peter Black  (1Yankee Environmental Systems, Inc., 2State University of New York at Albany, 3Naval Research Lab/SAIC, Inc.)


Real-Time Directional Wave Spectra from the Wide Swath Radar Altimeter

Ivan PopStefanija1 and Edward J. Walsh2 (ProSensing, Amherst, MA1; NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO2)


Real-Time Rain Rate from the Wide Swath Radar Altimeter


Ivan PopStefanija1 and Edward J. Walsh2 (ProSensing, Amherst, MA1; NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO2)